Premier League title race: Will Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City win?

Premier League title race: Will Arsenal, Liverpool or Manchester City win?

28 March 2024 0 By Total Football News
There's just one point separating Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City with 10 games to go of the 2023-24 Premier League season
There’s just one point separating Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City with 10 games to go of the 2023-24 Premier League season

Sunday is shaping up to be a huge day in the Premier League title race, with Liverpool playing Brighton and Manchester City hosting title rivals Arsenal.

The Reds would go top if they pick up a point or more against the Seagulls – before current leaders Arsenal go to third-placed City.

For the first time since 2014, just one point separates the top three after 28 games played – and it now looks likely that it will go down to the wire.

It will be their first league matches in three weeks – because of the FA Cup quarter-finals and an international break – so let us refresh your memory of how it’s shaping up.

BBC Sport, with data experts Nielsen’s Gracenote, help to break down the title race match-by-match to see who is projected for glory or heartbreak.

Current table

TeamPlayedPointsGDGSForm (past 5 games)
1. Arsenal28644670WWWWW
2. Liverpool28643965DWWWD
3. Man City28633563WWWWD
If teams are level at the end of 38 games, the title will be decided on goal difference, and if still level, goals scored

What are the remaining fixtures?

MarchBrighton (H)Arsenal (H)Manchester City (A)
AprilSheffield United (H)Aston Villa (H)Luton (H)
Manchester United (A)Crystal Palace (A)Brighton (A)
Crystal Palace (H)Luton (H)Aston Villa (H)
Fulham (A)Wolves (A)
Everton (A)Brighton (A)Chelsea (H)
West Ham (A)Nottingham Forest (A)Tottenham (A)
MayTottenham (H)Wolves (H)Bournemouth (H)
Aston Villa (A)Fulham (A)Manchester United (A)
Wolves (H)West Ham (H)Everton (H)
Postponed to date tbcTottenham (A)

Pep Guardiola’s City side are in typically formidable post-Christmas form as they aim for an English top-flight record of four consecutive titles. They have 10 wins from 13 league games since December’s 1-0 defeat by Aston Villa.

As for Liverpool, the 3-1 loss at Arsenal on 4 February remains their only league defeat in nine games so far in 2024. Jurgen Klopp’s team still have a trip to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby to fit into a busy schedule.

On Arsenal, although they end this weekend top of the table, Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Nielsen’s Gracenote says their Euro Club Indexexternal-link simulations have the title battle as a “two-horse race”, rating City and Liverpool higher as well as the Gunners having “trickier” fixtures.

He adds: “Arsenal have six matches left against teams in the Premier League’s top half but five of those are away from home. Manchester City and Liverpool also both have six matches remaining against teams in the top half of the Premier League, but four of City’s are at home and half of Liverpool’s are.”

Match-by-match projections

Graphic showing Man City's remaining fixtures
Man City’s trip to Spurs has the lowest percentage win prediction from Nielsen’s Gracenote
Graphic showing Liverpool's remaining fixtures
Away trips to Manchester United and Aston Villa have been identified as potential slip-ups for Liverpool by Nielsen’s Gracenote’s predictions
Graphic showing Arsenal's emaining fixtures
Nielsen’s Gracenote projections has Arsenal dropping points against several sides and gives them only a 15% chance of beating Man City in their next game

When were the other closest three-way title races?

There have only been a handful of three-way Premier League title races where the teams have been separated by just two points towards the end of a 38-game season.

2013-14: By as late as 6 May 2014 only two points separated Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, but City won their game in hand to leapfrog a stumbling Liverpool – characterised by Steven Gerrard’s infamous slip and Crystal Palace’s comeback – to snatch the title.

2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by a point with Man Utd a further point back. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were part-way through a run of 11 consecutive wins and sealed the title by beating United at Old Trafford.

1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games left Man Utd were level on 61 points with Newcastle and Liverpool were on 59 points in third. Despite having played two games more, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side saw off the challenge of Kevin Keegan’s Magpies.

Who do the prediction models suggest wins the title?

TeamPredicted points% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points
1. Man City86443nd – 63 points
2. Liverpool86372nd – 64 points
3. Arsenal83191st – 64 points

Gracenote estimates the probability of each match outcome – win, draw or loss – using their Euro Club Index and then simulates the rest of the season a million times to create the probabilities.

TeamPredicted final points% chance of winning titleCurrent position & points
1. Man City86463rd – 63 points
2. Liverpool85352nd – 64 points
3. Arsenal83191st – 64 points

Opta’s prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings – based on historical and recent team performances. These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.

What happened at this stage last year?

Graph showing how the 2022-23 Premier League title race unfolded
Three draws in a row for Arsenal in April 2023 saw their title challenge lose momentum last season as Manchester City took the trophy

Arsenal’s title challenge started to fade at the same stage last year.

Gleave says: “Manchester City came into their own at the end of last season when the title race was transformed from a 50/50 battle at the beginning of April into a near-certain league title for Pep Guardiola’s team less than a month later.”

What if they finish level on points?

Should there be a tie, the league is decided on goal difference, then goals scored, then most points in the head-to-head matches, then most away goals in the head-to-head record.

Whatever happens, there are certain to be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the campaign on 19 May.

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